SeminarCARF Seminar

Thu, Feb 20, 2020

48th CARF Seminar:Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries (joint with Masao Fukui and Emi Nakamura)

Date & Time

February 20, 2020 (Thursday) 13:00-14:30


Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)


Jón Steinsson (University of California, Berkeley)



Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirelyfrom female employment: as women’s employment rates converged towards men’s over thepast half-century, the growth rate of female employment slowed. We ask whether this slow-down in female employment caused the slowdown in overall employment during recent busi-ness cycle recoveries. Standard macroeconomic models with “balanced growth preferences”imply that this cannot be the cause, since the entry of women “crowds out” men in the labormarket almost one-for-one. We estimate the extent of crowd out of men by women in the labormarket using state-level panel data and find that it is small, contradicting the standard model.We show that a model with home production by women can match our low estimates of crowdout. This model—calibrated to match our cross-sectional estimate of crowd out—implies that70% of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female conver-gence.