終了開催日 : 2015.03.03
スピーカー： Adair Turner 卿
Former Chairman of the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority & Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking
Title： "Credit, money and leverage: monetary policy after the crisis"
Subject Matter：Before the 2008 crisis, modern monetary theory largely assumed that economic stability was assured provided low and stable inflation was achieved. Monetary models (DSGEs) largely ignored the details of the financial system. Since money supply had turned out to be a poor forward
indicator of inflation (as velocity declined), it seemed that aggregate financial balance sheets were of limited importance . So whatever the level of real economy leverage, it could be assumed optimal and
unconcerning since determined by efficient markets.
Adair Turner will argue that all of these assumptions were profoundly mistaken and that we need to develop a new monetary and macro prudential theory which returns to the fundamental issues relating to the role of credit and money which were explored by early 20th-century economists such as Knut Wicksell and Friedrich von Hayek, but were largely ignored by modern macroeconomic theory. The approach by Wicksell and von Hayek reflects an understanding of the different functions which different categories of credit play within an economy. This leads to the need for a “*Disaggregated quantity theory of credit*”, rather than a Quantity theory of money.
As a result, Lord Turner will argue, optimal policy needs to combine far tighter controls on the quantity and allocation of private credit created than pre-crisis orthodoxy considered appropriate and an acceptance that governments and central banks should sometime stimulate aggregate demand not via encouraging private credit creation (one of the standard QE transmission mechanisms) but through the overt money finance of increased fiscal deficits (i.e. helicopter money).
Lord Turner will finish by arguing that Japan will and should
permanently monetise some of the outstanding government debt now
increasingly owned by the Bank of Japan.
Adair Lord Turner has combined careers in business, public policy and academia. He became Chairman of the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority as the financial crisis broke in September 2008, and played a leading role in the redesign of the global banking and shadow banking regulation as Chairman of the International Financial Stability Board’s major policy committee. He is now a Senior Fellow of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, and at the Centre for Financial Studies in Frankfurt.
Prior to 2008, Lord Turner was a non-executive Director at Standard Chartered Bank (2006-2008); Vice Chairman of Merrill Lynch Europe (2000-2006); and, from 1995-1999, Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. He was with McKinsey & Co. from 1982 to 1995.
Lord Turner became a cross-bench member of the House of Lords in 2005 and was appointed Chair of the Climate Change Committee in 2008, stepping down in 2012; he also chaired the Pensions Commission from 2003 to 2006, and the Low Pay Commission from 2002 to 2006.
He is the author of 'Just Capital – The Liberal Economy' (Macmillan, 2001), and ‘Economics after the Crisis, (MIT Press, 2012), and holds Visiting Professorships at the London School of Economics and at Cass Business School, City University. He is a Trustee and Chair of the Audit Committee at the British Museum.
Lord Turner studied history and economics at Caius College, Cambridge.