SeminarSpecial Seminar

Mon, Apr 24, 2023

87th CARF Special Seminar : Dr. Prachi Mishra (Division Chief, Research Department, International Monetary Fund) and other authors, “World Economic Outlook, April 2023”

※ This event is open only to University of Tokyo students, faculty and staff.

World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery (

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies


Tentative signs in early 2023 that the world economy could achieve a soft landing—with inflation coming down and growth steady—have receded amid stubbornly high inflation and recent financial sector turmoil. Although inflation has declined as central banks have raised interest rates and food and energy prices have come down, underlying price pressures are proving sticky, with labor markets tight in a number of economies. Side effects from the fast rise in policy rates are becoming apparent, as banking sector vulnerabilities have come into focus and fears of contagion have risen across the broader financial sector, including nonbank financial institutions. Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply.


John Bluedorn is a deputy division chief on the World Economic Outlook in the IMF’s Research Department. Previously, he has been a senior economist in the Research Department’s Structural Reforms Unit, a member of the IMF’s euro area team in the European Department and worked on the World Economic Outlook as an economist, contributing to a number of chapters. Before joining the IMF, he was a professor at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, after a post-doctoral fellowship at the University of Oxford. Mr. Bluedorn has published on a range of topics, including international finance, macroeconomics, labor markets, and development. He holds a PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.

Chapter 2: The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy


The natural rate of interest—the real interest rate that neither stimulates nor contracts the economy—is important for both monetary and fiscal policy; it is a reference level to gauge the stance of monetary policy and a key determinant of the sustainability of public debt. Chapter 2 aims to study the evolution of the natural rate of interest across several large advanced and emerging market economies. To mitigate the uncertainty that typically surrounds estimates of the natural rate, the chapter relies on complementary approaches to analyze its drivers and project its future path. Overall, the analysis suggests that once the current inflationary episode has passed, interest rates are likely to revert toward pre-pandemic levels in advanced economies. How close interest rates get to those levels will depend on whether alternative scenarios involving persistently higher government debt and deficit or financial fragmentation materialize.


Jean-Marc Natal is Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department of the IMF. Prior to joining the IMF, he was Deputy Director of Research at the Swiss National Bank where he advised the Board on monetary policy decisions and strategy. Mr Natal taught Monetary Theory and Policy at the University of Geneva and his research is published in various economics journals, including the Economic Journal and the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. He holds a PhD in International Economics from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva.

Chapter 3: Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt


Public debt as a ratio to GDP soared across the world during COVID-19 and is expected to remain elevated, posing a growing challenge for policymakers, particularly as real interest rates are rising across the world. Chapter 3 examines the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios. Based on econometric analyses and complemented with a review of historical experiences, the chapter reaches three main conclusions. First, adequately timed and appropriately designed fiscal consolidations have a high probability of durably reducing debt ratios. Second, when a country is in debt distress, a comprehensive approach that combines significant debt restructuring—renegotiation of terms of servicing of existing debt—fiscal consolidation, and policies to support economic growth can have a significant and long-lasting impact on reducing debt ratios. Coordination among creditors is essential. Finally, economic growth and inflation have historically contributed to reducing debt ratios.


Prachi Mishra is Chief of the Systemic Issues Division, in the Research Department at the IMF. She was Advisor in the Research Department between September 2020 and December 2021. Prior to joining the Fund, Prachi worked in Goldman Sachs as Managing Director, Global Macro Research, and India Chief Economist. Previously, Prachi worked in several departments at the IMF in Washington DC, including in the office of the First Deputy Managing Director. During 2014-2017, she served as Specialist Adviser and Head of the Strategic Research Unit at the Reserve Bank of India. Prior to that she was Senior Economist in the Ministry of Finance, and at the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council in the Government of India. She was awarded the Mahalanobis Memorial Medal by the Indian Econometric Society in 2018 for her contributions to quantitative economics. Some of her other accomplishments include the invitation by the Government of United Kingdom to their International Leaders Program; IMF Research Awards for Exceptional Contribution to Low-Income Country Work, and for Innovative Research in Political Economy, International Trade and Exchange Rates; and the Export-Import Bank of India International Economics Development Research Annual Award for the thesis completed at Columbia University. Prachi earned a PhD degree in Economics from Columbia University, and a Masters in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics (gold medal, ranked first in the University). Her research interests include in the fields of international economics, banking and finance, and political economy.

Date and Time

April 24, 2023 (Monday) 17:00 PM – 18:30 PM


Room 1213 in the International Academic Research Building(Hongo Campus)

Registration(Application only for University of Tokyo students, faculty and staff.)

Registration Form