第55回 CARFセミナー：Does Skill Abundance Still Matter? The Evolution of Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century

2025年1月17日（金）　10:30 – 12:00

オンライン開催（Zoom）

マクロ経済学ワークショップ 2024（CIRJE）

Shinnosuke Kikuchi (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Does Skill Abundance Still Matter?
The Evolution of Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century

This paper documents that skill-abundant countries no longer have a comparative advantage in skill-intensive sectors. While this empirical relationship was strong in the 1980s, it weakened in the 1990s and disappeared by the 2000s. The decline is more pronounced in countries and sectors with higher automation. I find no such heterogeneous effects among countries and sectors more exposed to offshoring. Using a quantitative trade model incorporating automation and offshoring, I confirm that the observed changes in automation can account for the evolution of comparative advantage while observed changes in offshoring cannot. I conclude by revisiting the relationships between globalization, technology, and inequality through this model. Automation increases skill premia in developed countries with high automation and also raises welfare globally, whereas offshoring leads to smaller, more evenly distributed welfare gains.