第56回 CARFセミナー：Sovereign Defaults and Public Investment (Capital)

2025年1月23日（木）　10:30 – 12:00

オンライン開催（Zoom）

マクロ経済学ワークショップ 2024（CIRJE）

Tamon Asonuma (International Monetary Fund)

Sovereign Defaults and Public Investment (Capital)

Sovereigns’ public investment (capital) influences sovereign debt crises and resolutions. We compile a dataset on public expenditure composition in 1975–2020 for 75 countries. We show that during sovereign debt restructurings with private external creditors, public investment (i) experiences a severe decline and a slow recovery, (ii) differs from public consumption and transfers, and (iii) relates with restructuring delays. We develop a theoretical model of defaultable long-term debt that embeds endogenous public capital accumulation, expenditure composition, production and multi-round debt renegotiations. The modelquantitatively shows public investment dynamics delay debt settlement (i.e., “public capital accumulation delays”). Data support theoretical predictions.