The Effects of Infection Containment Policies With Weak Legal Enforcement

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the effects of three key COVID-19 containment policies implemented in Japan—(i) the state-of-emergency (SOE) order, (ii) the quasi-emergency order, and (iii) the order to combat the BA.5 variant—on the number of newly confirmed cases. Relative to typical lockdown policies implemented around the world, these Japanese policies were unique for their weak legal enforcement. Based on a differences-in-differences approach and using prefecture-level data, we find that the SOE order reduced the number of newly confirmed cases in quantitatively and statistically significant ways. We also find suggestive evidence that these policies became less effective over time, likely because the sense of urgency associated with them declined over time and because the Omicron variant of 2022 was more transmissible than earlier variants.