Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes (Revised version of CARF-F-121; Forthcoming in "Journal of Economic Theory")

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing game, in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest. We show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period. We also characterize symmetric Nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness.