マクロ金融
F-series
作成:
番号:CARF-F-458
Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities
Abstract
We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.